Global Risk Estimates

After many years as a content manager for Living Abroad, I know it’s not unusual to discover online tools and resources that are interesting, useful, and powerful, and to share them with our globally mobile users. However, it’s a little more unusual to encounter one that I also immediately share with friends, family and colleagues.

The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, one of the several resources newly added to Living Abroad’s International Relocation Center, was developed by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology’s GT-BIOS. It uses current data throughout the United States and Western Europe to help determine the likelihood of at least one person in attendance at an event ranging from 10 to 5000 people being infected with COVID.

Users are presented with a map of the United States, but choosing the “Global Risk Estimates” tab at the top of the website allows you to view the countries in western Europe for which data is available. From there, users can select their county or applicable administrative region. The “Event Size” slider in the left column allows users to change the estimate of event attendees, and “Select Ascertainment Bias” allows users to adjust data based on presumed COVID testing availability.

For example, on November 16, in my county in Connecticut, USA, there is currently a fifty percent risk that at an event with fifty people, one person who would test positive for COVID will be present.



As always, it’s important to be aware of context and circumstances when using online resources. You can read more about the research behind this tool in its “About” tab, and at the peer-reviewed journal Nature.

Written by Erin Fitzgerald, GMS, Content Manager